Monday, 24 December 2012

EUROPE: '' Euro-Zone crisis'': Hidden Risks will Plague growth in 2013

EU leaders were full of praise for the euro-zone bank oversight plan passed two weeks ago at the EU summit in Brussels. But the deal is not nearly as watertight as they claimed. It lacks a legal foundation and could lead to a conflict of interest at the highest levels of the European Central Bank. The recent resolutions made by the European leaders suppose to save the common currency but the future in Euro-zone into next year looks uncertain.

The agreement reached by European leaders and their finance ministers in Brussels summit were just a series of systematic small steps. In Brussels summit, EU leaders agreed to Euro-zone Bank oversight plan but hidden risks and Euro-zone economies forecast into next year plague Euro-zone bank oversight plan and Euro-zone economies growth.

The deal marked just the latest milestone on the road to joint liability in the euro zone -- and the danger of a collapse has still not been precluded. Europe's economic crisis, say experts, will only continue to get worse next year.

No wonder, then, that financially powerful countries outside the euro-zone were less than impressed by the new banking watchdog. The oversight regime is open to non-euro-zone EU members as well, but Sweden, for example, isn't even considering it.

According to the agreement, the new oversight agency must submit all of its important decisions for authorization. In the case of conflicts, the agency must also submit to the decision of a mediation committee -- a provision which is not sufficiently grounded in European law.

The euro crisis will morph into a European crisis in 2013. The survival of the common currency is not in question any longer, but European economies, after two years of crippling and contra-cyclical austerity, are stuck on flat. Furthermore, the question is not so much whether any country will exit the euro but whether the further integration of the zone will lead to the exit or de facto ouster of a non-euro member from the European Union. In 2013, Europe will be weakened by its economy and threatened in its unity.

Even if euro zone leaders decide that the folly must stop, they will pay the price of two years of cult-like devotion to austerity: in the arsenal of measures deployed to save the euro, it’s the one thing that has failed to work. European governments have created two bailout funds, rescued three euro members and recapitalised the banks of a fourth. They have restructured Greek debt twice. The ECB has poured cheap funds on the banking system, and it has promised to do “whatever it takes” to keep the common currency together.

Yet governments have undermined these efforts by obsessing about fiscal discipline - and it shows. After declining 0.4 percent in 2012, the euro zone’s economy as a whole will stagnate next year. Official forecasts vary - but few lie outside the spectrum that stretches from mild shrinkage to paltry growth.

In a rosy scenario, where reason would prevail, euro zone leaders in 2013 would stop reacting and start acting. They would design joint policies aimed at stimulating growth and reducing unemployment from levels that have become unbearable. It will simply not do to wait for the future benefits of the structural reforms most of them have begun to implement.

Meanwhile, powerful centrifugal forces are pulling non-euro members away from the EU. Some of them, such as the UK, never saw it any more than a one-dimensional “single market” in the first place. But if it ever comes to a choice between a smaller EU and a stronger monetary union, it’s easy to see what euro zone governments will choose. 2013 could be the year when that choice becomes clearer.

By Guylain Gustave Moke
Political Analyst/Writer
Investigative Journalist